Can Two Wrongs Make a Right? Accidental Accuracy in Predictions of Others’ Preferences Under Uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
We investigate the accuracy of people’s predictions of others’ preferences under uncertainty. We focus on two key steps in prediction. First, predictors must anticipate others’ beliefs about the likelihood of uncertain events. Second, predictors must anticipate the weight that beliefs will have on others’ choices. We find that predictors typically err at both steps. Intriguingly, the errors they make are often of opposing directions. Where predictors think others are more optimistic about likelihood than they actually are, predictors also think that others will weigh beliefs more negatively than they actually do. Likewise, where predictors think that others are more pessimistic about likelihood than they actually are, predictors also think that others will weigh beliefs more positively than they actually do. Thus, people’s errors may often offset to yield predictions that are “accidentally accurate” overall. In prediction, two wrongs can make a right. An application of our analysis reveals a specific pattern by which principals diverge from optimal hiring strategies for agents.
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